Prediction Market
Prediction Market Copilot is Minara's AI-powered signal engine for Hyperliquid HIP-4 binary prediction markets. It analyzes multi-timeframe technical data, estimates the probability that a price condition will be met at settlement, and compares that estimate against the current market-implied probability to identify contracts where the expected value is positive.
What you can do with Prediction Market Copilot:
Get YES, NO, or WAIT signals for all active HIP-4 contracts in one view
See AI-estimated probability versus market-implied probability side by side, with edge percentage
Review expected value per dollar risked before committing to a position
Execute trades directly from the signal card with preset or custom sizes
Track open prediction market positions through to automatic settlement
What is Prediction Market Copilot?
Hyperliquid HIP-4 defines on-chain binary prediction contracts. Each contract asks a single question about a price event: will asset X be above price Y at time Z? YES tokens settle at $1.00 if the condition is met. NO tokens settle at $1.00 if it is not.
The YES token price represents the market's collective implied probability. YES at 0.65 means the market assigns a 65% chance to the condition being met.
Prediction Market Copilot adds a second probability estimate to this: the AI probability, derived from technical analysis across five timeframes. The gap between the AI probability and the market price — measured in percentage points — is the edge. Positive edge on the YES side signals a YES recommendation. Positive edge on the NO side signals NO. When expected value is negative on both sides, Copilot recommends WAIT.
The core logic is expected value, not direction:
EV(YES) = p_AI × (1 − yes_price) − (1 − p_AI) × yes_price
EV(NO) = (1 − p_AI) × yes_price − p_AI × (1 − yes_price)A Copilot signal fires when EV on one side is positive. The signal does not mean "BTC will go up." It means "at the current price, this contract has a positive expected return given the AI's probability estimate."
Who is Prediction Market Copilot For?
Beginners
New to prediction markets
Follow Copilot signals directly; use $10–$50 preset sizes; read risk notes on each card
Traders
Familiar with binary outcomes and EV
Use signals as a first filter; review TA reasoning before execution; size by conviction
Developers / Power Users
Quantitative or automated workflows
Access structured signal output via API; run position sizing logic on raw probability data
How to Access
Direct URL: https://minara.ai/app/prediction-markets
In-app navigation: Copilot → Prediction Markets tab
A connected Hyperliquid wallet with USDC balance is required for trade execution. Signal viewing requires no balance.
Reading the Signal List
The signal list displays all active HIP-4 contracts. Each row contains:
Contract
Asset, target price, and settlement timestamp
Time remaining
Countdown to settlement
Direction
YES (green) / NO (red) / WAIT (gray)
Edge
AI probability minus market-implied probability, in percentage points
Confidence
HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW, based on EV magnitude
The list defaults to sorting by edge size descending. Contracts with the highest expected value appear first.
Understanding the Signal Card
Tapping any contract in the signal list opens its signal card.
Direction badge
YES / NO / WAIT with HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence
Probability comparison
AI probability vs market-implied probability (YES price)
Edge
Gap between the two, in percentage points
Expected value
EV per $1 risked (e.g., "+$0.14")
TA reasoning
Three data-specific bullets (max 20 words each)
Risk note
The single most likely factor that could invalidate the call
Execution
Preset sizes ($10 / $50 / $100 / $500) + custom; win/loss preview updates live
How AI Probability Works
Copilot generates an AI probability estimate through the following pipeline:
Step 1 — Technical analysis. For each contract, Copilot reads K-line data across five timeframes: 1m, 5m, 15m, 1h, and 4h. It computes:
RSI
14-period
MACD
12 / 26 / 9
Bollinger Bands
20-period, 2 std dev
EMA
20, 50, 200
ATR
14-period
Support / Resistance
Local swing highs/lows
Funding rate
Current Hyperliquid perpetual rate
Step 2 — Timeframe weighting. The timeframe closest to the settlement window carries more weight. A 2-hour contract emphasizes 5m and 15m data. A 24-hour contract emphasizes 1h and 4h.
Step 3 — Probability output. The model synthesizes all inputs into a single probability estimate. When signals conflict or the chart is ambiguous, the estimate moves toward 0.50. Copilot does not produce artificially confident numbers.
Expected Value Calculation
p_AI
AI-estimated probability that the condition is met
yes_price
Current YES token price (= market-implied probability)
no_price
1 − yes_price
Copilot recommends YES when EV(YES) > 0, NO when EV(NO) > 0. Confidence tiers:
> 0.10 (> 10 percentage points of edge)
HIGH
0.02–0.10
MEDIUM
< 0.02 or negative
WAIT
Hard Rule Overrides
Three scenarios override the EV calculation:
Short settlement + favorable position. When settlement is within 30 minutes and BTC is already more than 0.5% above the target price, Copilot recommends YES directly. Reversing a 0.5% gap in under 30 minutes requires sustained selling pressure that is statistically unlikely in most conditions.
Long settlement + extreme pricing. When settlement is more than 20 hours away and either YES or NO is priced below 0.40, Copilot recommends the cheap side regardless of directional view. The time window is long enough that extreme initial pricing typically represents mispricing.
Overpriced outcomes. When either side is priced above 0.90 with more than one hour remaining, Copilot recommends WAIT. The apparent winner is already priced in, and the remaining edge does not justify the position.
Trade Execution
From the signal card:
Confirm the recommended direction (YES or NO button is highlighted).
Select a size — $10, $50, $100, $500, or enter a custom amount.
Review the win/loss dollar preview.
Swipe to confirm. The order routes to Hyperliquid through your connected wallet.
Settlement is automatic at the contract's expiry time. Winning tokens credit your account at $1.00 each. Losing tokens expire at $0.
Position Tracking
The Positions tab shows all open prediction market contracts:
Contract
Target price + settlement timestamp
Side
YES or NO
Size
Number of tokens
Current price
Live YES/NO token price
Unrealized P&L
Marked-to-market against current price
Time remaining
Countdown to settlement
What Prediction Market Copilot Can and Cannot Do
What you can define
Which contract to trade and which side (or follow Copilot's recommendation)
Position size per contract
Whether to act on HIGH, MEDIUM, or LOW confidence signals
What the platform controls
AI probability estimation methodology and model parameters
EV calculation formula and confidence tier thresholds
Hard rule overrides for short/long settlement scenarios
Settlement execution (automatic at Hyperliquid contract expiry)
Current limitations
BTC HIP-4 contracts only at launch. ETH and other assets to follow.
No integration with scheduled macro data (CPI, FOMC, etc.). The TA pipeline reads price and volume only.
No cross-contract portfolio optimization. Each signal is evaluated independently.
AI probability calibration is a live process. Cold-start accuracy is lower than steady-state accuracy. Historical win rates by confidence tier will be published as data accumulates.
Minimum trade size and market liquidity on HIP-4 contracts may limit execution on very small orders.
Tips for Better Results
Check the risk note on every signal card before executing. It names the specific factor most likely to invalidate the call.
Prioritize HIGH confidence signals over MEDIUM when capital is limited. Edge magnitude correlates with historical accuracy in well-calibrated models.
Avoid placing positions when the time remaining is less than 5 minutes. Liquidity is typically thin near settlement.
Track your own win rate by confidence tier and compare against Copilot's displayed accuracy. Divergences are informative.
Use WAIT recommendations actively. Sitting out a contract with no edge is the correct decision, not a missed opportunity.
Do not size up dramatically on a single contract because the EV looks large. EV is a per-trade statistical expectation, not a single-trade guarantee.
Review the multi-timeframe TA summary in the detailed analysis view for contracts where you are near your trade size limit.
Disclaimers
Historical backtest performance, where displayed, is not indicative of future results.
All trading involves risk. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.
Prediction Market Copilot provides AI-generated signals for informational purposes only. These signals do not constitute financial or investment advice.
All perpetual and prediction market trades are executed on Hyperliquid. Minara does not act as a counterparty or liquidity provider.
AI probability estimates are based on technical analysis and may not account for fundamental, macroeconomic, or news-driven events.
The user maintains full control of all positions at all times. Copilot does not execute trades autonomously.
Model calibration improves over time. Early accuracy statistics should be treated as preliminary.
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