> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://minara.ai/docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://minara.ai/docs/support/zh/chang-jian-wen-ti/trading/prediction-markets.md).

# 预测市场

**为什么三个预测市场都显示 NO——或者都显示 YES？** 这是预期中的行为，不是 bug。

这三种下注类型各自都是独立的预测市场。Minara 的 AI 会分别评估每一个市场，将自己对事件概率的估计与市场对该概率的定价进行比较。目标是找出优势——也就是 AI 的估计与隐含赔率存在明显差异的情况。

AI 推荐 YES 还是 NO，取决于两个因素共同作用：

* **胜率**：AI 认为该事件发生的可能性有多大
* **赔率**：如果发生，市场会支付多少

如果赔率太低，无法支撑下注，那么高概率结果也不会自动成为 YES。只有当 AI 的概率估计高于市场价格所隐含的概率时，才会推荐 YES。

**AI 如何计算 Range 市场的概率**

对于一个有三个结果的 Range 市场——低于、区间内和高于——AI 会调用一个单一模型，输出 P(BTC > X)，即 BTC 在结算时超过某个给定价格的概率。它会对每个边界价格都执行一次这个计算。


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